Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game
by Jim Albert, Jay Bennett
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Book Summary Information
Author: Jay Bennett, Jim AlbertEdition: Paperback
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2003-04-08
ISBN: 038700193X
Number of pages: 432
Publisher: Springer
Product features:
- ISBN13: 9780387001937
- Condition: USED - Very Good
- Notes: 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. Tracking provided on most orders. Buy with Confidence! Millions of books sold!
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Book Reviews of Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game
Book Review: An Important Addition to a Baseball Library
Summary: 4 Stars
For anyone who wishes to understand cause and effect in baseball, this is a very insightful book. The authors clearly and convincingly demonstrate that many of the statistical outcomes we generally attribute to a player's ability are really nothing more than random effects. For example, a player with a lifetime batting average of .300 who hits .280 during a season is said to have had an "off year." The authors show that any player who has a true batting ability to produce base hits in 30% of his at bats (i.e., a .300 hitter) can be expected to hit .280 or less or .320 or higher about one-third of the time. For someone who grew up thinking that all these year-to-year fluctuations were the result of "good years" and "bad years," the very significant impact of randomness came as a rude awakening! But for the serious student of the game, this is a critically important insight.
Similarly, the authors show that a team's win-loss record during any single season may not reflect the team's real ability. Again, in 162 game season, randomness rears its head. It is not that uncommon for a team to win 12 to 15 games less (or more) than its underlying talent would suggest.
As we reduce the number of games in a series (for example, consider the typical best-of-seven post-season playoff format), the effects of randomness are greatly magnified. Thus it is not at all uncommon for the best major league team in any season to fail to win the World Series.
"Curve Ball" is well written, and the authors do a good job of explaining the statistical models they employ. I often find myself returning to this book to refresh my understanding of baseball probabilities.
The one deficiency that bothers me most is the lack of a subject index. Thus the reader is forced to thumb through the book to locate some particular topic of interest. But even so, this is an excellent book that belongs in any good baseball library.
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