The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Summary and Reviews
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Book Reviews of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Book Review: Rock solid logic, pointless bile
Summary: 3 Stars
Though this books contains a few real gems, for most of this book I felt that NNT was not only pointing out the obvious: he was beating it to death. Being neither an economist, nor an American, however, I'm clearly not his target audience - I don't see too much that is ground-breaking in the book, and it could have been a lot shorter.
Whilst recognising that the logic is rock solid, the bile surrounding it is sprayed around to the point of unacceptability. Social groupings, ranging from statisticians to taxi-drivers, are generalised about and insulted in a quite blatant way; and whilst NNT insists in the book that national identitities do not exist, he proceeds to make assumptions about, and criticise, most nationalities in one way or another - if you're French, gird your loins before trying to read this. These comments may be part of the quirky humour that NNT is trying to use and that I just don't get; but for me he goes too far.
Book Review: Heavy going for banal insights
Summary: 3 Stars
It may not be fun for forecasters to admit it, but NNT (his abbreviation) is onto something: those of us in the business (I spent many years as a stock analyst) are often doing little but making up stories (what NNT stigmatises as "narratives"). Indeed it is the business of a good analyst to weave a story out of recent price movements, valuation anomalies and other news, as well as estimates of future earnings. As NNT stresses, the last of these is the most unknowable. Surprises catch us out. NNT is onto something else as well: his "Black Swan" concept, the unlikely event with extreme consequences, is not captured by the bell curve of normal distribution underlying much investment theory.
But we have to plough through a heck of a lot of anecdote, self-serving reminiscence and repetition to learn that there isn't much more to NNT's book than these two--not desperately startling--points; and that his approach to the consequences of his insights is so banal as to recommend that we avoid big risks and put ourselves in the way of big rewards. It is also inherent in NNT's view of these things that the tiny amount of maths presented is offered in such a tentative spirit as to make it completely unhelpful.
This does not make the book useless. It is always a useful corrective for those of us in the business to remind ourselves that our tools for forecasting complexity are flawed. And perhaps other authors will build on NNT's work to incorporate his thinking into the apparatus of investment theory, though NNT seems so much to relish his self-assumed role as gadfly that I guess he would be horrified at the idea!
Meanwhile, I was left with the sense that NNT himself wrote the book at least as much as a showcase for his quirky personality (not to say his consultancy business, mentioned several times), as a serious essay on the limits of forecasting. This is a shame as forecasting is worth doing and worth doing better; deliberately or not, NNT makes his contribution to the latter.
Book Review: Some key insights. Half the length and a quarter of the ego and it's a 5.
Summary: 4 Stars
This is the archetypal curate's egg tome. A few of the concepts took my breath away. His erudition is unquestionable. No doubt, this man is smarter than me. I thought it worth struggling through.
What, struggle you say? The man would seem to have an enormous ego, enjoys self-promotion (and taking cheap shots at his antagonists). The shame is that it comes through, subtly at first, building and then, with the last chapter, ending in almost a shriek of self-righteousness.
He makes great points only to shoot himself in the foot. An example, yes, the world does over-use the normal curve. And, yes, it does so as, if you can accept "normality" there are a host of mathematical tools. And many just use normal as if it were, well, normal. Contrary to Taleb's assertion that we all use it blindly the statisticians I know all worry about their selection of models and distributions - they don't enter into analysis blindly.
I'm glad I read it. I'm off to hear him lecture. I'll probably buy another book of his. But he needs a more ruthless editor to say, "Nassim, enough, chop those pages."
Book Review: It's about economics...what do you expect?
Summary: 3 Stars
This book has been compared with "Freakonomics" as an easy(?) and informative dive into global and local economic theory (and lots more - but that's the gist). Let me tell you that it is not as accessible and interesting as that book. It is way too long (and the type is pretty small as well) and some of the arguments appear to dissapear up their own tail pipes, but...
There are some interesting stories, and it may be heresy to say so but if these stories had been compiled into a book like "Why don't penguins' feet freeze?" then it would be more interesting, have more impact and be more fun. I get the impression that the author takes himself far too seriously. Having just heard him in a radio interview however, he seems like a decent enough fellow who doesn't apparently read newspapers or listen or watch the news, but picks up "what is important" in conversation at the health club. This is on the basis that something is only important if people are talking about it!
I would recommend this as a book to read a chunk at a time, it is heavy going to read all the way through, especially the bits where he is dishing out "advice", so make sure you have a potboiler nearby to alleviate the intensity of this one
Book Review: Amazing, but will not appeal to eveyone
Summary: 5 Stars
This is an amazing, nuanced book dealing with psychology, social science and meta-knowledge, as much probability. It is a worthy successor to his earlier work `Fooled by Randomness', and a book that can (and ideally should to get the most out of it) be read multiple times.
The book will not appeal to everyone especially those whom are attacked within (largely experts in business, probability and mathematics). The book does not contain any specific information about how to get rich or increase ones wealth (though the ideas can be applied with some thought). It will appeal most to those interested in philosophy, epistemology and how we use knowledge.
What I loved about this book
I love books about ideas.
The positive outlook the book has (about positive black swans as much as disasters).
That is was even better reading it for the second time.
It treats the reader with respect and does hold you with kid-gloves as some other social science books do.
Though pointing out what appears obvious at first the way that each idea is dealt with sheds new light and is a real eye opener.
That the ideas are more nuanced than they first appear.
That there are many jumping off points for other ideas and books to read.
That there is much of the author contained within and it is in part autobiographical.
Some of the issues with the book:
Some of the examples and metaphors could have been better explained or clearer.
The ideas needed to fully appreciate the ideas within are contained within the book itself. It is only on second or third reading that the ideas become clearer. Depending on how you view this it is either a positive or a negative (personally I felt that this was a great positive).
A reader can be highly prone to `the confirmation bias'. Leading to the likelihood that: either the reader will think that this is all obvious and the book is largely pointless; or that the author is full of it and the book is largely pointless. If you can see that the points that you are as likely to be fooled as anyone else the book becomes a lot clearer.
The book is far from perfect, however it is an amazing read and this is why I give it 5 out of 5.