The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West
by Edward Lucas
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Book Summary Information
Author: Edward LucasEdition: Hardcover
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2008-02-19
ISBN: 0230606121
Number of pages: 272
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Book Reviews of The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West
Book Review: A "Long Telegram" for the 21st Century?
Summary: 3 Stars
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Edward Lucas' "The New Cold War" is how unsurprising much of it is; if you, like me, know very little about Russia outside what you read in the daily newspapers, you would nonetheless find the central narrative familiar: Under Putin, Russia is no longer the dysfunctional, anarchic democracy it was in the Yeltsin era. Rather, it is an autocracy, resuscitating many of the distasteful features of the Old Soviet Union (On Yeltsin's Russia, see Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse, 1970-2000).
Thus Putin's regime made elections into a joke; The press, which in the Yeltsin era was free, wild and undisciplined, became house trained. Independent Power centers, such as Russia's Oligarchs, found their wealth taxed away, their businesses subject to government harassment. Most bended with the wind, a few martyred themselves and lost large chunks of their fortune, as well as their freedom or ability to stay in Russia. Journalists and governmental critics find themselves locked up in psychiatric institutions. Most notoriously, some are murdered.
The Russian public seems to response to this with indifference. Putin's brutal conduction of the second Chechen War (a war instigated by terrorist attacks on Russian citizens which, Lucas persuasively argues, were probably conducted by Russia's security forces, successfully framing the Chechens for them) won him great popularity. The good economic performance under his watch (which probably had more to do with the price of oil than with his efficient administration) and the absence of critical press made him popular - indeed, Putin is Russia's most popular leader. A new national youth organization Nashi, promoting "patriotic" values and leader worship, substitutes indoctrination for education. In short, it is authoritarian business as usual.
But Putin's regime seemed to have unlearned one vital lesson of the Soviet Union - the inefficiency of a centrally planned economy. A wave of renationalisation, particularly of the energy industries, swept over Russia during the Putin years. For those, like Lucas, who fear the resurgent Russia, this surely suggests a serious limit on Russia's long term power. For the Russian people, though, it may mean that the prosperity they have enjoyed in the last few years is in jeopardy.
So much of internal affairs. But Lucas's book is not called "The New Cold War" for nothing. How concerned should "the west" - defined, for this purpose, as the United States and Western Europe - be about the new Russia? How large a threat is it?
Lucas thinks we are facing a clear and present danger. He repeatedly compares the new Russia not only to the old Soviet Union, but to the Third Reich, and especially to the Munich crisis (e.g. pp. 169, 210). I think he's vastly overestimating the threat.
Lucas strangely spends most of a chapter titled "How Eastern Europe Sits on the Front Line of the New Cold War" discussing the situation in Georgia and in the various "-stans". In Georgia, the Democratic, pro-Western and anti-Russian regime of Mikheil Saakashvili suffered the worst aggression of the new Russia - Russia invaded it and created puppet states in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In Georgia, I fear, resistance is futile. It is of course nice to have pro-democracy allies in region, and both Europe and the United States have contributed a lot to Saakashvili's regime, but neither are likely to fight for Georgian independence. And as the recent war has demonstrated, Georgia is unwilling or unable to fight for itself: Its American armed and Israeli trained military collapsed entirely before the Russian forces. Accepting Georgia into NATO would only undermine NATO's credibility, once it does nothing against Russian aggression. The only course seems to be for Georgia to adopt a more Russian-friendly posture.
The Baltic situation is much more serious. I doubt the West could accept George style violence that close to its boarders, with the political instability, economic effects, and refugee situation it would entail. Furthermore, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are EU and NATO members - ignoring Russian aggression against them would destroy the credibility of both institutions. Russian action against them may be catastrophic - but for that reason, hopefully, such action is unlikely (a judgment Lucas concurs with, p. 256).
Instead of military action, Russia can use its natural resources to get its way. Natural Gas, and the pipes that lead it to its destination, is a particularly powerful tool for the arm twisting style of diplomacy the Kremlin loves. It has used gas strategically, in the past, selling it cheap to its friends and expensively, or not at all, to its enemies. But as demand increases, Russia's highly inefficient gas production would be unable to supply all its clients. The effects of gas scarcity on the Geopolitical situation is hard to foresee, but it seems that, as with Western dependency on Gulf oil, Western government should seriously consider the availability and feasibility of alternative energy sources, including nuclear energy.
Lucas's account has some surprising omissions: one of the worst effects of the old cold war was its tendency to polarize local conflicts and reorient them around the Cold War axis. Will Russia's role as a weapon supplier to anti-Western regimes such as Chavez's Venezuela and Assad's Syria become a basis for long term partnership? This may be the worst danger of the New Cold War, but Lucas is skeptical (pp.263-264).
The other omission is India. One sixth of humanity lives in the world's greatest democracy. The formerly poor India was not a significant player during the first cold war, but it is today an economic powerhouse with Nuclear Weapons. How does it response to the new menacing voices coming from the Kremlin, and can the West use an alliance with it to its advantage?
"The New Cold War" is a not an easy read, and I don't agree with everything Lucas is saying. Its second half, which discusses foreign policy, is far better than the earlier parts about Russia's internal affairs. Lucas offers significant insights regarding the new Russia, and an informed view about the threat it presents to the free world.
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