Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
by Matthew R. Simmons

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Book Reviews of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

Book Review: Comprehensive and Illuminating
Summary: 5 Stars

The gist of his findings are that over 80% of Saudi Arabia's oil production comes from 5 "super-giant" fields which have been under development from as early as 1946. These fields are all in states of late maturity or decline, and there are currently no viable substitutes within Saudi Arabia which can shore up production declines, whether it occurs in the short-, medium-, or long-term. The bottom line is that the world can no longer depend on the historic ability of Saudi Arabia to "turn on the taps" in the face of unprecedented future demand. Global oil demand for 2005 is forecast to be around 86 million barrels per day, growing at approximately 2-3% per year. As non-OPEC nations, and the majority of OPEC nations, have reached their sustainable peak oil production, Saudi Arabia's ability to increase its output is critical. Matt Simmons' picture of Saudi Arabia demonstrates that its ability to make up new demand and cover the shortfall due to decreasing production is based on unsubstantiated optimism. By joining up the dots from data available in the public domain, Simmons gives us all a reality check and challenges our misconceptions with regard to continued increases in global oil production.

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